Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Virginia Primary Results

Ouch. I haven't gone 1 for 4 in living memory. Of course, Jerry Kilgore wins in a rout of Warrenton Mayor George Fitch. After that, basically flip-flop my picks/recommendations, and you'll have the results. Once again, ye olde ability to pick winners gets called into question, and the math goes badly. Turnout was miserable for all Commonwealth-wide races; none of them cleared 4.0%. I suppose that this once again proves the maxim that only the die-hards vote in the primaries. Two things surprised me: 1. Bill Bolling's crushing of Sean Connaughton. Everywhere I'd been prior to this had virtually been "Connaughton Country", with there always being someone chanting the mantra, "Sean wants to run with Jerry". My response to that always was, "Gee, you think?" but that doesn't mean that everyone else came to the same conclusion. As far as I could tell, Connaughton had lashed himself to the mainmast of the good ship Kilgore and wasn't about to let go. Obviously it didn't work. I suppose it means that, amongst Republican voters, the anti-tax sentiment still holds considerable sway. This is unfortunate, but you go to the races with the electorate you have, not the electorate that you want. 2. Leslie Byrne's victory(?). My home base is nowhere near Leslie Byrne's, and she barely registered in my perception. Sort of a "I know she exists but beyond that..." kind of thing, if you will. I had expected Viola Baskerville to do what Donald McEachin did in 2001, crushing all comers with a heavily favorable turnout in the City of Richmond. Did this happen? Doesn't look like it, and even if it did, the percentages would only suggest about 4,000 votes up for grabs on Viola's expected base of support, so that does nothing to the 12,000 vote gap. A quick bit of telephoning around doesn't give me any real sense of who she is, so perhaps this woman from the far away reaches of the Commonwealth will be handily defeated by Bill Bolling. The one thing that I did pick up was that she's apparently tight with pro-Dean sentiment, so perhaps that explains why she has suppport. Bah, I was hoping to keep Howard Dean at arm's length from my beloved Commonwealth. ---- UPDATE, 2252 hrs: It appears that 17% of voters in the Republican primary need to be taken out and shot. I jest, of course, but I'd sure like to figure out what motivated them to the Fitch banner. One of my correspondents suggests that it's all about taxes, but I'm not entirely sure how that explains bucking the party's choice. On the other hand, with victory for the other candidate virtually assured, there's no time like the present to register a protest vote. Bah, protest votes. As of right now, Baskerville's pulled to within 9,000 of Byrne, with only a quarter of the Richmond City precincts reporting. Baskerville is winning 68-16 over Byrne, so it may be that the McEachin model wins again, defying my application of the Commonwealth-wide turnout number in what should be Baskerville's home turf. Curiouser and curiouser, says Alice. The numbers don't get any better for my man Baril or for Connaughton, either. Bother.

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